A New Era of Uncertainty for Resistance Against Western Imperialism

The dynamics in west Asia have shifted very quickly. The ceasefire in Lebanon seemed to be evidence of Israel reaching its boiling point both externally and internally, but with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, those resisting western imperialism must reevaluate how they move forward and what awaits the region. Jubilance for the fall of a dictator rightfully meets hesitation over what the future holds. While Assad was an undeniable evil for the region’s peoples, we must keep a critical lens when inspecting the new regime, their ideology, and agenda.

The Arab Spring, which saw many popular uprisings and rebellions against reactionary governments across the Arab world, led to a true popular movement against the Assad regime in 2011. Seizing on vulnerability and to sow further chaos and destabilization, the United States and other outside state actors began building up and supporting rebel factions in the country. In 2019, the US would also introduce the Caesar Act, which imposes secondary sanctions that prevent not just US persons from engaging with the Assad regime, but also non-US persons. The US would go on to control Syria's oil and wheat fields, ostensibly destroying what was left of the economy after the main phase of the civil war. The Caesar Act was set to expire after five years, so while the Houthis pleaded with Assad to open up the Golan front against Israel this past year during its genocide against Palestine, he refused, trying to court Saudi Arabia and other western-aligned states to hopefully see the end of the sanctions. Syria has been used as a means to aid in resistance causes, but it bears repeating that Assad was never a hero to resistance forces. He always refused to acknowledge mass pro-democracy protests which led to brutal crackdowns against dissent and used chemical weapons against his own population multiple times since the Arab Spring. 

These last thirteen years of civil war have created one of the world's largest refugee populations and killed close to half a million people. Following a couple years of stagnation, a coalition of Syrian groups finally ousted  Bashar al-Assad in a couple of weeks. Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the main group forming a new government in Syria, and their potential technocratic form of governance in the country will not free the people there. They’ve shown that, while under the banner of the SSG (Syrian Salvation Government), their form of leadership would be disastrous for the country. Tax increases, rising commodity prices, and establishing monopolies on key goods have led to some of the worst conditions in the country. These policies would be even more disastrous if introduced on a national scale. Also of note, HTS was formerly a wing of Al-Qaeda in Syria that splintered off into their own group. According to western media, they are “saying the right things” in appearing detached from their days of the Al-Nusra Front, with the US even rescinding their $10m bounty on its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Since the fall of Assad’s regime, Israel has ramped up their bombing campaigns in Syria, decimating Syria’s ability to defend itself—destroying its naval fleet and storehouses—while also creating what they refer to as a “sterile defense zone.” Israel is exploiting the situation in Syria for a land grab, looking to place double the amount of settlers in the Golan Heights. This will likely create another band of resistance to Israel as their occupation of more land opens up another group of peoples to their internationally recognized right to free their lands through armed resistance. As of now, HTS has announced publicly they have no desire to open a conflict between Syria and Israel. They have aligned themselves with NATO as they seek to have the US remove them from the list of foreign terrorist organizations. Removal from this list would open avenues for Syria to have its sanctions eased, and for the acting government body to bring in Western support to help rebuild and stabilize the country through investment and loan opportunities. If Israel and the US have their way, Syria will never know stability since that would work against the US imperial hegemony in the region. Israeli media is already floating the narrative that they would rather see it balkanized to “further control the chaos.”

Israel is not the only country bombing Syria; the US has conducted over 75 strikes to contain ISIS and prevent them from conducting operations. Türkiye’s Erdogan is also ready to mount an invasion into Northern Syria to “eradicate” the Kurdish forces therein such as Yekîneyên Parastina Gel (YPG), aka People’s Defense Units, the main force in the US-backed alliance known as the Syrian Democratic Forces in that northern region.

With all these different backdrops, Syria is without any security apparatus. HTS has dismissed the Syrian army with the intent of vetting everyone before bringing them back onto assignment, if those enlisted have any future in service. While quiet about Israeli aggression into Syrian soil, HTS is demanding that Palestinian and other factions lay down their arms, proclaiming only the state will be armed moving forward.

This upheaval in Syria should be recognized as a true blow to the “Axis of Resistance” against Western imperialism in the region. The chaos, inherent to civil war and political upheaval, isolates groups. That does not mean we will see resistance groups fall completely, but it without a doubt sets them back. While it’s theoretically possible that the new government under Mohammed al-Bashir will bring a level of prosperity not felt under the Assad regime, it’s much more likely that they will see the same level of economic stability and “freedom” seen in other Western aligned regimes in the region (i.e., none at all). It’s worth noting that the US has put tools back into place to reinstitute the draft, should they see fit. It’s therefore reasonable to expect the US to take advantage of the current situation and strike Iran. If the destruction of Iran were successful, it gives the US one less thing to worry about in west Asia—while offering better positioning—as they pursue another war in the Pacific against China in a new and ever-expanding imperialist arms race.